An internal control perspective on the market value consequences of IT operational risk events

IT internal controls are an important component of an organization's arsenal of internal controls. Upon conceptualizing failures of operational IT systems, or what we call IT operational risk events, as signals of IT internal control weaknesses, we theorize about these events' impact on internal control objectives in general and about how this impact is influenced by the regulatory environment in particular. We then perform an event study to examine the economic impact of a diversified sample of IT operational risk events from the U.S. financial services industry during 1985–2009. We specifically test the impact of contextual factors on the degree of this effect, including the events' target (confidentiality, integrity, or availability of IT assets), the source of disclosure (regulatory or voluntary), the enactment of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act, and firm-specific attributes. We find that investors penalize firms most strongly for experiencing events that compromise the availability of IT systems, consistent with our prediction that these events more negatively impact the reliability of financial reporting and the efficiency and effectiveness of operations. This result contrasts extant empirical studies that are predominantly concerned with information and security breaches. We find also that investors' penalty is the strongest for firms experiencing IT operational risk events that occurred after the passing of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act or were disclosed by a regulatory body. Finally, the market reaction is shown to be stronger for firms with high growth potential, firms that are larger, riskier, and are in the banking sector. Implications for research and practice are discussed along with directions for future research.     

A cross-cultural study of the persuasive effect of fear appeal messages in cigarette advertising: China and Canada

This exploratory study investigated the moderating influence of culture on the persuasive power of fear appeal advertisements differing on type of fear. The conceptual framework for the study was based on Rogers' Protection Motivation model and incorporated type of fear, physical and social, as an independent variable and culture as a moderating variable. An experiment was conducted on a sample of 173 Anglo-Canadian and 180 Chinese subjects. The findings revealed that the physical threat ads had a much greater effect on the Anglo subjects than on the Chinese. Most importantly, these ads brought about an attitude change for the Anglos, but not for the Chinese. For the social fear ads, contrary to predictions, only the Anglos reacted to the ads. They tended to score higher than the Chinese on attitude towards smoking as well as on behavioural intentions.     

Charts and demand: Empirical generalizations on social influence

Social influence on consumer behavior has long been a subject of academic research in various scientific fields. According to research by Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006), music demand is a function of social influence between consumers. Market concentration tends to increase when information on demand becomes publicly available. In addition, stochastic agglomeration caused by social influence decreases the predictability of market success. These heavily cited findings challenge traditional market research and provide important insights on the impact of social media and sales charts. We test the stability of their results by replicating the study on music demand in a slightly different setting. We further investigate the generalizability of findings by probing other product categories and different phases of purchase decisions, i.e., interest, consideration, and actual demand. Across all categories and across all dependent variables, we are able to replicate the direction of the effects. We do, however, consistently obtain smaller effect sizes than reported in the original paper.     

Number of Accidents or Number of Claims? An Approach with Zero‐Inflated Poisson Models for Panel Data

The  hunger for bonus  is a well-known phenomenon in insurance, meaning that the insured does not report all of his accidents to save bonus on his next year's premium. In this article, we assume that the number of accidents is based on a Poisson distribution but that the number of claims is generated by censorship of this Poisson distribution. Then, we present new models for panel count data based on the zero-inflated Poisson distribution. From the claims distributions, we propose an approximation of the accident distribution, which can provide insight into the behavior of insureds. A numerical illustration based on the reported claims of a Spanish insurance company is included to support this discussion.     

Credit Risk Models – Do They Deliver Their Promises? A Quantitative Assessment

We develop a framework to assess the statistical significance of expected default frequency calculated by credit risk models. This framework is then used to analyse the quality of two commercially available models that have become popular among practitioners: KMV Credit Monitor and RiskCalc from Moody's.
Using a unique database of expected default probability from both vendors, we study both the consistency of the prediction and its timeliness. We introduce the concept of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) that allows to see in one curve the percentage of defaulting companies captured by the models one year in advance. We also use the Miller's information test to see if the models add information to the S&P rating.
The result of the analysis indicates that these models indeed add relevant information not accounted for by rating alone. Moreover, with respect to rating agencies, the models predict defaults more than ten months in advance on average.
(J.E.L.: C52).     

The use of Web sites as a disclosure platform for corporate performance

Adopting a stockholders' interests' perspective, we explore three related questions: (1) What are the scope and patterns of corporate performance disclosure on the Internet? (2) What are the determinants of the extent and scope of corporate performance disclosure on the Internet? (3) Is corporate performance disclosure on the Internet relevant for valuation of a firm's earnings? Corporate performance disclosure relates to corporate actions and initiatives that directly affect society and, ultimately, stockholders' wealth. We focus on Web (HTML) disclosure. Our sample comprises Canada's largest publicly-traded firms, many of which are also SEC registrants. The extent and scope of web disclosure by these firms is rated using a coding grid. Regarding the first question, three disclosure patterns emerge: (1) firms providing disclosure about innovation, development and growth also tend to report about customer value as well as maintaining a Web site with good capabilities (business-related disclosure), (2) disclosure about human/intellectual capital is linked to social responsibility disclosure (social-related disclosure) and, (3) the disclosure of financial performance and corporate governance practices are both closely linked together (financial-related disclosure). Regarding the second question, firms apparently take into account variables proxying for information costs and benefits accruing to stockholders when determining the extent of their Web disclosure. Finally, regarding the third question, a firm's web-based performance disclosure appears to affect its earnings valuation multiple, although in a differential manner according to the nature of the information being conveyed.     

Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis

In this paper we present a statistical analysis of four foreign exchange spot rates against the U.S. Dollar with several million intra-day prices over 3 years. The analysis also includes gold prices and samples of daily foreign exchange prices over 15 years. The mean absolute changes of logarithmic prices are found to follow a scaling law against the time interval on which they are measured. This empirical law holds although the distributions of the price changes strongly differ for different interval sizes.Systematic variations of the volatility are found even during business hours by an intra-day analysis of price changes. Seasonal heteroskedasticity is observed with a period of one day as well as one week as the result of an analogous intra-week analysis; taking this into account is necessary for any future study of intra-day price change distributions and their generating process. The same type of analysis is also made for the bid-ask spreads.     

The Learning Transfer System Inventory (LTSI) translated into French: internal structure and predictive validity

The Learning Transfer System Inventory (LTSI, Holton et al., 2000 ) considers 16 factors likely to influence the transfer of training to the workplace. The purpose of this study is to translate the Learning Transfer System Inventory into French and to examine (1) the internal structure of the translated instrument; and (2) its predictive validity. The Learning Transfer System Inventory was administered to 328 participants from six companies during the week following the end of a training program. The transfer questionnaire was filled in by 106 of those participants 1–3 months later. The results showed that a principal component analysis reveals a factor structure very similar to the original structure: the 16 original factors are replicated. Second, seven factors display statistically significant correlations with transfer: learner readiness, motivation to transfer, transfer design, opportunity to use, transfer‐performance expectations, performance‐outcomes expectations and performance self‐efficacy. Comparisons with four similar previous studies allow us to draw directions for future research on the instrument.     

Pig in the middle: Overcoming inflexibility unemployment

The growth in unemployment is not inevitable. It is the product of an implicit consensus amongst the most powerful social actors, which instead of implementing rules adapted to the new technological and economic era, fight to preserve the old rules from which they continue to draw profit. In the short run, preserving the inflexible attitudes towards work (the single salaried job with full salary) is such that unemployment is bound to increase and social strife will intensify. A more flexible approach to work supply and demand is illustrated by the game ‘pig in the middle’, which, with an equitable distribution of gains in productivity directly related to the implementation of new technology, does not exclude full employment for all.